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“Challenged for more than a decade by a determined global counter-terrorism (CT) campaign, Al-Qaeda (AQ) is facing an uncertain future. The death of Osama bin Laden, the popular uprisings spreading across the Middle East and North Africa, and the global recessionary pressures that are causing governments to re-evaluate their CT strategies are amongst the many far-reaching developments that will influence AQ’s future prospects.
How AQ adapts to the challenges and opportunities that will shape its next decade is a source of spirited debate amongst government officials, academic experts, think-tank analysts and private consultants. Insofar as this lack of consensus suggests that AQ’s path is not yet set, it creates a need to explore its alternative futures. To this end, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) launched a foresight project in September 2012 to explore how AQ might evolve along any one of three model paths over the course of the next five years: gradual decline; incremental growth; and rapid growth.”
“Indonesia’s anti-terrorism squad killed seven suspects and arrested 13 in operations that started yesterday, after two men were held last week in connection with an alleged plot to bomb Myanmar’s embassy in Jakarta.
The raids took place in Jakarta, Kebumen, about 440 kilometers (275 miles) southeast of the capital, Bandung, 147 kilometers east and Kendal, about 440 kilometers east, National Police Spokesman Boy Rafli Amar told reporters during a briefing today. Those killed ‘fought back’ when they tried to arrest them, Amar said without elaborating.”
“The UAE has finalised moves to set up an international counter-terrorism centre, it was announced on Wednesday.
The Federal National Council’s committee for foreign affairs has viewed a draft law for the setting up of the International Centre of Excellence for Countering Violent Extremism (Hedaya), the WAM news agency said.
The head of the committee, Rashid Al Sharaiqi, said the bill had been referred to the house by the government for deliberation.
In its explanatory note, the government says it had set up Hedaya to honour a pledge it made during the Global Counter-terrorism Forum (GCTF) held in New York two years ago.”
“President Francois Hollande said on Tuesday that France was taking the threat from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) seriously after a purported leader of the Islamist group called for attacks on French interests throughout the world.”